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THE LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Print E-mail
THE LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCESViews from a Smoke-Filled Room

by Rich Perelman
Editor-in-Chief


Los Angeles, August 24 – Although these would seem to be the salad days for the anti-tobacco movement, there are little hints here and there that indicates that all is not lost for the smoker:

Newsmax.com reported on August 2 about a study in The Public Interest, an American public policy journal, which shows that higher tobacco taxes are driving people away from cigarettes, but toward obesity.

Duh.

Authors Michael Grossman and Inas Rashad wrote, according to the report, “Higher cigarette taxes and higher cigarette prices have caused more smokers to quit – but these smokers seem to have begun eating more as a result.

“According to our research, each 10 percent increase in the real price of cigarettes produces a 2 percent increase in the number of obese people, other things being equal.”

Other sources in the article indicated that there are physiological reasons for weight gains, resulting from the blocking of certain proteins.

Predictably, the anti-smoking forces disavow any importance of the report, but the authors noted that these kinds of reactions are the unintended consequences of public policies. The article also pointed to increased marijuana use by teens as the legal age for drinking has been raised.

With obesity now all the rage among health zealots, will the same folks who championed higher tobacco taxes be liable to pay states billions of dollars to combat the physical, mental and emotion impact of the increase in obesity that the higher taxes they supported have caused and are causing now?

• Higher taxes on cigarettes and the resulting higher prices plus the ease with which cartons can be sold on the black market may have caught the attention of organized crime.

Canadian Press reported on August 10 that a semi-trailer with cigarettes and other tobacco products valued at C$700,000 was hijacked just west of Edmonton, Alberta. It was the fourth major heist of tobacco products, following a January theft of C$4.2 million in tobacco products in British Columbia, an April theft of C$1.7 million in tobacco products in Mississauga, Ontario, and an armed robbery of a van full of tobacco products in Halifax, Nova Scotia, during which three dozen Costco employees were bound and gagged as a part of the operation.

Imperial Tobacco Canada, whose products have been taken in most of these thefts, has called into question the impact of the higher taxes on crime, but has been shouted down by politicians who are dedicated to wiping out smoking.

What about the U.S.? How does this impact cigar smokers? The illicit sale of Cuban cigars here is already a $100-plus million a year business and takes place right under the nose of Federal, state and local authorities. While a return to Prohibition is not in the cards right now, lawmakers would do well to consider a free market, with moderate taxation, in tobacco, before we celebrate the 100-year anniversary of the greatest failure in American Constitutional history: the passage of the 18th Amendment on January 16, 1919.


Despite these warnings, today’s anti-tobacco environment is a disheartening situation for many, although more for cigarette smokers than cigar lovers. But there are mavericks:


• The Old Oxford Pub Indian Chief Cigar Bar in Fairhaven, Massachusetts obtained a special license to allow smoking as long as they can show that 51 percent or more of their revenue comes from tobacco products of all kinds (cigarettes, cigars, pipe tobacco, snuff and chew).

The Old Oxford will now have a three-month trial period in which it must prove to the State that its revenues come more from tobacco than anything else. It’s almost a throw-back to the early days of the 20th Century and the marketing antics of neighborhood taverns.

In those days (as well as today, come to think of it), the margins on beer, whiskey and other alcoholic beverages were so great that saloon owners offered a “free lunch” to anyone who came in and bought a drink. The “free lunch” usually wasn’t much more than a simple sandwich board, but it had its desired effect, luring local workers for a few slices of meat and cheese on some hard bread to go along with their schooner of beer.

Will we see 21st Century bars and pubs adopt the same route? Cheap beer and wings for anyone who buys a carton of cigarettes or a box of cigars? Stay tuned.
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American cigar consumption bottomed out in 1993 at 3.42 billion units (13 per capita), but premium sales are up.